Exeter Chiefs were one of the great surprises of the 2025-26 PREM season. A year after finishing ninth, Rob Baxter's rebuilt side went 11-1-6, finished third and reached the final after beating defending champion Bath at the Recreation Ground.
That creates a fascinating prediction problem. Exeter have a young core with obvious room to improve, but they also lost two starters from the final, face growing international disruption and are returning to the Champions Cup.
- Subscribe To FloRugby To Watch Rugby All Season Long
- What's Streaming On FloRugby? Take A Look At The Schedule
- The Best Rugby Players In The World 2026
The Chiefs are good enough to contend again. But repeating third place may be harder than their momentum suggests. The call here is a slight regular-season regression without a fundamental step backward.
Why Exeter Could Beat This Prediction
Start with the defense. Exeter conceded 367 points during the 2025-26 regular season, the lowest total in the PREM, and collected at least one table point from every league match. That gives Baxter's team a sturdy foundation even when its attack is imperfect.
Then consider the age of the core. Captain Dafydd Jenkins and Greg Fisilau are 23. Tom Hooper and Andrea Zambonin are 25. Campbell Ridl and Kane James are 21, while Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is already an established England threat in his early 20s.
Sandy Park also creates a significant advantage. Exeter went 7-0-2 at home in the PREM last season and outscored opponents 263-118 there. If that remains one of England's hardest away trips, Exeter can accumulate enough home points to stay firmly in the playoff race.
Why Exeter Could Slip From Third
Len Ikitau became Exeter's first-choice inside center during the run to the final, while Scott Sio started at loosehead. Both are gone. Nika Abuladze is an experienced, direct replacement candidate for Sio, but Exeter's intended premium midfield replacement creates a timing problem.
Dallas McLeod, the All Blacks-capped Crusaders center signed on a three-year deal, does not arrive until the end of 2026. Will Butt therefore has an important early role as Exeter rebuild the midfield around Henry Slade.
- Who Are Rugby's Highest-Paid Stars? Here Are The Biggest Contracts In The Sport
- When Are The Biggest Gallagher PREM Rivalry Matches? Derby Dates For The 2026-27 Season
- The Complete Gallagher PREM Schedule 2026-27: Fixtures, Key Dates, Holiday Matches & Playoffs
Zambonin is also expected to miss the opening months after shoulder surgery, while Paul Brown-Bampoe is unavailable initially. Jenkins underwent shoulder surgery after the final, although Exeter hoped he could be available for the start of the PREM.
The competition offers little margin. Northampton are defending champions and have strong continuity. Bath remain loaded despite offseason forward losses. Leicester improved during Geoff Parling's first season and reinforced their pack, while Saracens and Bristol provide credible competition around the playoff places.
The Swing Factor: Can The Depth Survive Exeter's Success?
Exeter's rebuild has produced an increasingly international roster. Feyi-Waboso and Slade are established England players. Jenkins is an established Wales international, James debuted for Wales in 2026, and Varney, Vintcent and Zambonin are Italy internationals. Hooper is an active Wallaby, while Abuladze and Bachuki Tchumbadze are Georgia internationals. Fisilau has entered England's senior-selection picture.
Baxter has more alternatives than he once did. Harry Wilson adds back-five versatility, Sam Wolstenholme strengthens scrum-half, Butt covers center and wing, and players such as Ross Vintcent and Kane James make the back row genuinely deep.
But Champions Cup rugby adds another demand. Exeter managed multiple competitions impressively last season, reaching the PREM final, PREM Rugby Cup final and Challenge Cup semifinal. Toulouse, La Rochelle and a trip to Ellis Park represent a considerably harsher European test.
Best-Case Scenario: Another Trip To The Final
Abuladze needs to stabilize loosehead. Butt needs to make the early midfield transition manageable before McLeod arrives. Zambonin must return healthy, while Exeter's young stars continue progressing.
- FloRugby's Top 100 Rugby Players: Nos. 10-1 Reveal A New No. 1 In World Rugby
- Jordie Barrett, Finn Russell Lead FloRugby's Top 100 Rugby Players: Nos. 20-11
- Pieter-Steph du Toit Headlines FloRugby's Top 100 Rugby Players: Nos. 30-21
That combination could produce a top-two finish and home semifinal. Exeter already proved they can beat elite opposition under knockout pressure by winning 27-26 at Bath after trailing 26-10 at halftime.
Northampton and Bath enter with stronger claims as the primary title reference points, but Exeter's ceiling includes another final and a genuine chance to win it.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Schedule Exposes The Gaps
The plausible downside is not a return to the four-win team of 2024-25. Too much has improved to make that the sensible expectation.
International absences thin the strongest combinations. Zambonin's absence hurts the second row and lineout. Replacing Ikitau proves harder than expected. Last season's extraordinary ability to salvage points from losing positions normalizes. Champions Cup demands drain players Exeter cannot easily replace.
Away performance is another warning. Exeter were 4-1-4 on the road in the 2025-26 PREM and produced only a plus-9 scoring differential away, compared with plus-145 at Sandy Park.
In a congested playoff race, a few lost bonus points and narrow away defeats could push Exeter to seventh or lower. That is the realistic floor.
FloRugby's Exeter Chiefs 2026-27 Prediction
Predicted Finish: 4th
The realistic range is third through sixth, but fourth best balances Exeter's proven quality against the increased difficulty of repeating last season.
Northampton and Bath begin ahead of them as the clearest title benchmarks. Exeter belong with Leicester and Saracens in the immediate group capable of challenging those two, while Bristol has enough attacking upside to complicate the race.
The Chiefs should be a genuine playoff contender rather than a playoff certainty. Their defense, Sandy Park advantage and young core make another top-four finish more likely than a major collapse. Their changing midfield, international exposure and European workload make another third-place finish difficult to assume.
In the Champions Cup, reaching the round of 16 would represent a successful return to Europe's top competition. A quarterfinal would be an excellent achievement given Toulouse away, La Rochelle at home and the Lions at Ellis Park.
If McLeod transforms the midfield after arriving, Zambonin returns at full strength and Exeter's attack catches up with its defense, fourth will look pessimistic and another final becomes realistic.
The prediction is therefore a small step backward in the table but not in the trajectory: fourth place, a playoff fight that Exeter ultimately wins, and an outsider's chance of turning another postseason opportunity into a championship run.
Exeter Chiefs 2026-27 Frequently Asked Questions
How Can Rugby Fans In The United States Watch Exeter Chiefs On FloRugby?
Rugby fans in the United States can follow Exeter Chiefs during the 2026-27 season on FloRugby, with matches also available to stream through the FloSports app.
Exeter Chiefs 2026-27 PREM And Champions Cup Schedule: Every Match
Gallagher PREM
- Round 1: Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester, Sept. 26, 2026
- Round 2: Bath Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs, Oct. 2, 2026
- Round 3: Bristol Bears vs. Exeter Chiefs, Oct. 10, 2026
- Round 4: Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls, Oct. 24, 2026
- Round 5: Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks, Oct. 31, 2026
- Round 6: Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs, Dec. 5, 2026
- Round 7: Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens, Dec. 19, 2026
- Round 8: Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs, Jan. 2, 2027
- Round 9: Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints, Jan. 23, 2027
- Round 10: Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs, Jan. 30, 2027
- Round 11: Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins, Feb. 20, 2027
- Round 12: Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Exeter Chiefs, Feb. 27, 2027
- Round 13: Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Bears, March 20, 2027
- Round 14: Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs, March 27, 2027
- Round 15: Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby, April 17, 2027
- Round 16: Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs, April 24, 2027
- Round 17: Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers, May 8, 2027
- Round 18: Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs, May 15, 2027
Investec Champions Cup
- Round 1: Toulouse vs. Exeter Chiefs, Oct. 18, 2026
- Round 2: Exeter Chiefs vs. Connacht, Dec. 13, 2026
- Round 3: Exeter Chiefs vs. La Rochelle, Jan. 9, 2027
- Round 4: Lions vs. Exeter Chiefs, Jan. 16, 2027