Only two more weeks remain in the regular season of the Guinness PRO14, and we still don’t know what the playoff matchups will be.

(Este noticias en Español acqui)

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April 12

Munster vs Benetton

Ospreys vs Southern Kings

Ulster vs Edinburgh

Zebre vs Scarlets

April 13

Cardiff vs Connacht

Dragons vs Cheetahs

Glasgow vs Leinster

Here’s what we do know:

Benetton vs Leinster

Benetton Rugby is for real. The team from Treviso, Italy produced a thrilling performance, going through 29 phase on the final play of the game to score and secure a draw with mighty Leinster.

Although Leinster has already clinched 1st in Conference B, they still showed plenty of resilience in Italy. Having conceded the majority of possession and behind for most of the game, the Irish team still clawed back to get that tied result.

Scarlets vs Edinburgh

FloRugby columnist Juan Pablo Socino will be very happy with his team’s effort this week, as Edinburgh needed badly to win.

The two teams were lying 4th and 5th in Conference B, and so a loss would probably take one of them out of playoff contention. Scarlets were happy to have Leigh Halfpenny back, but it was his mistake that allowed Jaco van der Walt to run the length of the pitch for Edinburgh’s second try to cap the comeback.

Connacht vs Zebre

Connacht did just barely enough, beating Zebre 6-5. A loss would have opened the door wider for the Cardiff Blues to chase down the Irishmen in Conference A.

And how about Zebre’s defense? Not bad for a last-place team.

Toyota Cheetahs vs Ospreys 

Dan Evans is still scoring for Ospreys, as the Welsh team won on the road in South Africa. That’s a tough place to play, and they the victory keeps hope alive for Ospreys.

Munster vs Cardiff Blues

Munster was the Guinness PRO14 and Heineken Champions Cup, and that grinding forward power is what will get them there.

Having clinched a spot in the playoffs, Munster now wants a bye to the semifinals. Cardiff could have used a bonus point, but, while an exciting attacking team (Aled Summerhill especially), the Blues have paid the price for a leaky defense.

Glasgow Warriors vs Ulster Rugby

Glasgow has not secured a first-round bye, but the Warriors will be in the playoffs, and showed how clinical they can be against a very good Ulster team.

Ulster missed crucial opportunities, and Glasgow’s cover defense was exceptional.

Isuzu Southern Kings vs Dragons

The Dragons have won four games, Southern Kings only two, but the Kings are ahead of the Dragons in the standings. Why? Bonus points.

This is a testament to how the Southern Kings play exciting, open rugby, and how they don’t give up. The South African team has seven (seven!) close-loss bonus points to go with five four-try bonus points. 

Those additional 12 points are more than two victories, and bump them ahead of a Dragons team that is yet to get a four-try bonus point in any game.

This game was a wild one and adding to that was some poor discipline on both sides. At one point it was 13-on-13.

So now what? Here’s where every team stands in the playoff hunt:

Conference A

Glasgow: In first place but only three points ahead of Munster. The Warriors play Ulster and Edinburgh and two wins will ensure a bye to the semifinals. If they lose, Munster could catch them for 1st. Either way, Glasgow and Munster will be in the playoffs.

Munster: No easy games left with Benetton and Connacht, but even if Munster loses both, the Irish team will finish now lower than 2nd in the conference. They need to win to get a bye.

Connacht: They can’t catch Munster or Glasgow, so it’s all about keeping everyone else back. Connacht faces Cardiff and Munster, and since Cardiff is the team closest in the standings, it’s pretty clear what they need to do—beat the Blues and they’re in the playoffs. Lose and they might end up 5th.

Cardiff Blues: The two teams the Blues have to worry about are Connacht and Ospreys. They are the two teams the Blues will play the next two weeks. Two victories and they should be in the playoffs. One loss is enough to kill the dream.

Ospreys: It’s the same story for Ospreys, except the Ospreys also need a little help in the form of Munster defeating Connacht. That could well happen, so there’s still hope.

Toyota Cheetahs: Regardless of what happens, the Cheetahs will be 6th.

Zebre: It’s 7th place for the Italian side.

Conference B

Leinster: No worries. Just keep everyone healthy and fit and take that bye to the semis. No one can catch Leinster.

Ulster: Sitting 2nd right now Ulster has nothing guaranteed. And with games against playoff rivals Edinburgh and then 1st-place Leinster, it won’t be easy. A win against Edinburgh should ensure a playoff spot.

Benetton: The Italian team has surprised many and is very difficult to beat at home. Games against Munster and Zebre are crucial to ensure a playoff bid. Munster will be difficult to beat, but the game is in Treviso, and you saw how Benetton pulled off a 27-27 result against Leinster. Then comes the final game against rivals Zebre, where Benetton is favored. Because Ulster plays Cardiff, that one victory might be enough to secure a playoff spot.

Edinburgh: JP Socino will echo these thoughts—Edinburgh has to win. They have to beat Ulster and probably will have to beat Glasgow to make the playoffs. It is a very tall order.

Scarlets: Mathematically Scarlets can still make the playoffs with two victories, if other teams falter. Realistically … actually their prospects are not bad. Games against Zebre and Dragons, the two last-place teams in the Guinness PRO14, are very possible. So then they just need to hope Benetton loses to Munster (quite possible) and Zebre (unlikely). That’s where the plan breaks down. Scarlets can do it, but need help.

Isuzu Southern Kings: We already talked about the bonus points. The Southern Kings might lose games, but will get something out of it. The season ends with the rivalry game against the Cheetahs.

Dragons: In a battle with the Southern Kings for last place. The final game of the season, against the Scarlets, could decide who is 7th.

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