ASM Clermont Auvergne has been moving closer to the Top 14 playoffs without quite getting there, finishing ninth, eighth, seventh and seventh over the past four seasons.

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That makes the next step obvious. After going 15-11 and narrowly missing the top six in 2025-26, Clermont has enough evidence of progress — and enough offseason reinforcement — to make playoff qualification the standard in 2026-27.

What Has To Change For Clermont In 2026-27?

Defense.

Clermont scored 812 points and 103 tries last season, but conceded 708 points and 87 tries. That imbalance left an excellent attack repeatedly needing to compensate for defensive problems.

The late-season extremes captured Clermont perfectly. ASM won five of its final six, including a 34-31 victory at Bordeaux, but also suffered a damaging 41-13 home defeat to Racing 92.

Harry Plummer, who scored 295 points, gives Clermont an established playmaker. The attack is good enough. Becoming more difficult to score against is the clearest route from seventh into the playoffs.

Did Clermont Get Better This Offseason?

Yes, and particularly in areas that could help address that weakness.

Australian lock Darcy Swain and Fijian second-row Tevita Ratuva bring additional size and physicality to the pack. AJ Lam and Etene Nanai-Seturo add attacking options, while Baptiste Germain and Justin Bouraux improve the depth behind the starting halfbacks.

Clermont did lose Lucas Dessaigne and Thomas Ceyte, among others, but the overall squad appears deeper.

There are early injury concerns, however. Prop Cristian Ojovan is recovering from a broken foot, while Selevasio Tolofua underwent surgery for a broken fibula.

What Could Decide Clermont's Season?

First is whether the defensive improvement actually arrives. Personnel changes alone won't erase 708 points conceded.

Second is the Jauneau-Plummer halfback combination. Baptiste Jauneau gives Clermont a young scrum-half around whom it can build, while Plummer provides both playmaking and goal-kicking production.

Finally, Clermont needs consistency. The same team capable of winning at Bordeaux also lost heavily at Stade Marcel-Michelin to Racing. Eliminating those swings could be enough to change the final standings.

Clermont 2026-27 Season Prediction

• REGULAR-SEASON PREDICTION: 6th in the Top 14.
• PLAYOFF PREDICTION: Qualifies for the playoffs but does not reach the final.
• TOP 14 TITLE PREDICTION: Clermont does not win the championship.
• EUROPEAN PREDICTION: A knockout-stage run, with Clermont capable of making a serious push if squad depth holds.

MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: Clermont finally converts its recent incremental progress into a top-six finish.

CEILING: A deep Top 14 playoff run.

FLOOR: Another sixth-to-eighth-place battle ending outside the playoffs.

WHAT COULD MAKE THIS PREDICTION WRONG: A substantial defensive improvement could make Clermont better than sixth. If the defense remains vulnerable, however, another seventh-place-type season is entirely realistic.

Clermont looks closer to the Top 14's elite than last season's seventh-place finish suggests, but it hasn't yet shown enough defensive reliability to predict a championship run. The playoffs are the more reasonable next step.