Stade Toulousain enters the 2026-27 Top 14 season with a remarkably simple standard: Win it again.
Toulouse finished first in 2025-26, scored a league-high 981 points and 134 tries, then beat Racing 92 71-17 in the semifinal and Montpellier 28-20 in the final. It was the club's fourth consecutive French championship and 25th overall.
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So this Toulouse season prediction starts from the top. Toulouse should finish first in the regular season and win a fifth consecutive Brennus Shield. The biggest threat to that prediction is whether injuries and international absences finally stretch its considerable depth too far.
What Has To Go Right For Toulouse In 2026-27?
Toulouse does not need to fix a broken formula.
Ugo Mola's possession-based, offloading attack helped Toulouse average nearly 38 points per Top 14 match last season. By Round 25, it held approximately 57.8% possession and led the league's away standings.
Maintaining that attacking standard while keeping its leading players healthy and available should put Toulouse in position to finish first again.
Did Toulouse Get Better This Offseason?
The safest assessment is that Toulouse remains similarly equipped — with one significant addition.
Italy center Tommaso Menoncello arrives from Benetton on a three-year contract and strengthens a midfield that includes Pierre-Louis Barassi and Santiago Chocobares.
Paul Costes and Dimitri Delibes have departed, but Thomas Ramos and François Cros remain for one final season before leaving in 2027.
Injuries create more concern than the transfer business. Clément Vergé suffered a preseason ACL injury, while Valentin Delpy is expected to miss approximately three months with a shoulder injury.
What Could Decide Toulouse's Season?
International absences: Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Barassi, Emmanuel Meafou and Julien Marchand are among the players Toulouse could lose during France windows.
Depth and injuries: Back-row injuries created problems last season, and Vergé's injury already reduces options elsewhere in the pack.
Europe: Toulouse reached only the Champions Cup quarterfinals last season, losing 30-15 at home to Bordeaux-Bègles. Balancing another European pursuit with a 26-match Top 14 regular season will test Mola's rotation.
Toulouse 2026-27 Season Prediction
- REGULAR-SEASON PREDICTION: 1st
- PLAYOFF PREDICTION: Reaches the Top 14 final
- TOP 14 TITLE PREDICTION: Toulouse wins the Brennus Shield for a fifth consecutive season
- EUROPEAN PREDICTION: Champions Cup semifinal
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: Toulouse finishes first in the Top 14, reaches the final and wins its fifth straight French championship while advancing one round further in Europe than it did last season.
CEILING: Toulouse wins both the Top 14 and Champions Cup.
FLOOR: Toulouse finishes in the Top 6 but loses in the Top 14 playoffs and fails to advance beyond the Champions Cup quarterfinals.
WHAT COULD MAKE THIS PREDICTION WRONG: A convergence of injuries and international absences that removes too many first-choice Toulouse rugby players simultaneously.
The prediction is deliberately ambitious because the evidence demands it. Toulouse was the best regular-season team and the Top 14 champion last season, retains its championship core and adds Menoncello. The pick for 2026-27 is Toulouse: first place and a fifth consecutive Top 14 championship.
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