Can the Eagle men secure an Olympic berth by before spring is over? Signs point to yes.

What was once a hope, now looks to be a likelihood, and qualifying for Tokyo 2020 early can take so much worry out of the equation. (More on equations in a second.) 

If you don't make the top four in the World Series, you have to qualify through your regional tournament. For the Eagles, that basically means beating Canada in the Rugby Americas North final—something we'd expect them to do, but a bad bounce and a cranky ref and you never know. It's much, much nicer to get the qualification over and done with early.

Now, let's look at how it can be done.

The USA is first in the Sevens World Series standings, which is pretty amazing given that we're halfway through the season. But let's put aside the desire to see the Eagles get that championship. 

The top three are all relatively close (although Fiji suffered a setback in Las Vegas). It wouldn't be a surprise to see Fiji or New Zealand flip the top three order with one or two strong tournaments.

Let's look, instead, on how the USA can stay in the top four and clinch a flight to Tokyo.

Four teams will have to pass the Eagles. For them to slip to fifth, the Eagles will have to see New Zealand and Fiji outperform them on a regular basis, and also see two more teams out of England, South Africa and Samoa chase them down.

Here's how it might happen:

Scenario 1

USA performance drops on Day 2. The Eagles make the Top 8 on a regular basis but keep losing in the knockout rounds, or, as almost happened in Las Vegas this past weekend, drop out of the Cup Round once or twice. This would give them an average of 10 points per tournament and a total of 148 for the season.

To catch the USA, England would have to average 16 points per tournament (basically make the semis every time), and South Africa would have to exceed that. Samoa would have to win at least three tournaments.

Scenario 2

The USA makes every Cup Round, but finishes consistently fifth or sixth. If this happens, it would eliminate Samoa from contention. England and South Africa would have to finish second or third in just about every tournament (and remember, New Zealand and Fiji are still around).

Scenario 3

Something terrible happens and the Eagles start consistently missing the Top 8, and finish ninth, 10th or 11th every tournament. That would still give them 138 points for the season, forcing England and South Africa to finish in the top five of just about every tournament. Samoa would have to consistently make the top three.

Now you see how unlikely it is that the USA will drop down to fifth. England (top four twice this season) and South Africa (top four twice) would have to dramatically improve their performances, and would still need the Eagles to drop off significantly.

The way the USA is playing, despite injuries to major stars, they should expect to be top four consistently.

What happens in Canada doesn't stay in Canada

One more strong outing in Vancouver could make it all academic. If the USA finishes second in Vancouver, and England and South Africa finish seventh, then those teams will have to exceed the USA performance by 10 points in just about every tournament. 

Basically, it means they would have to go first and second for the last four events, and hope the Eagles stop making the Top 8.

Don't take it to the bank just yet, but make an appointment.