Who makes the Heineken Champions Cup playoffs? Here's a look:

Pool 1

Toulouse: It control of its own destiny, Toulouse plays Leinster in Round 5 and with a win can clinch 1st. A loss isn’t the end of the world as the French club has likely done enough to make the quarterfinals either way.

Leinster: Needs to win over Toulouse to get 1st. Excellent shot at quarters even with a loss because Round 6 game is against winless Wasps.

Bath: Out of it. Just playing spoiler at the moment. (Yes, Bath could win twice with a bonus point each time and if Leinster loses twice they’ve be tied on 15 points, but Leinster beats Bath head-to-head so it’s moot.)

Wasps: Sitting 0-3-1, Wasps would like to win a game, but likely won’t.

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Pool 2

Munster: Sitting 1st at 2-1-1 Munster has to win twice more to feel comfortable. 

Castres: In a logjam in a tight Pool 2, Castres faces Exeter and then Gloucester. Same opponents Munster will face. All of these teams are targeting two wins to win the pool.

The chances of getting a wild card spot in the playoffs are slim. Gloucester will be eliminated if they lose to Munster in Round 5. Exeter and Castres likely the same. Only Munster can absorb a loss in Round 5 and still be in contention to win the pool. 

Pool 3

Saracens: Chances are Saracens will go into the final weekend with 23 points, and Glasgow will have 18 or 19. Either way, the final, Round 6 meeting between Glasgow and Saracens will decide the pool. Saracens has the edge, currently, on the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it’s a slim edge.

Cardiff and Lyon are out of it. If Glasgow beats Cardiff in Round 5, a wild card spot is in the cards, but that final game against Saracens could be crucial.

Pool 4

Racing 92 is in control. The only way the Parisian team doesn’t win the pool is if Racing loses to Ulster in Round 5, and then somehow loses to 0-4 Scarlets a week later, while Ulster beats Leicester. Won’t happen. If Racing and Ulster are tied in standings points, Racing should win the tiebreaker.

Leicester isn’t quite out of it, but will be soon. Scarlets just wants to win a game.

Pool 5

Edinburgh can clinch with a win against last-place Toulon if Newcastle beats or ties Montpellier. That game is a battle for 2nd, more than anything. But … if Montpellier and Edinburgh both win, these two play for the pool in Round 6. If Newcastle beats Montpellier, that’s all she wrote. The Falcons won’t get enough points for a quarterfinal spot.

Likely Pool Winners:

Toulouse, Munster, Saracens, Racing 92, Edinburgh

Wild Card Teams:

Leinster is the only shoe-in.

Ulster and Glasgow have the 2nd- and 3rd-most points at present (both have 14), but both teams will play their pool leaders in the final weeks.

So does Montpellier, but in a much tighter pool and with a better shot at winning two games, or getting some bonus points, at the very least. At 11 points right now, Montpellier could overtake one of the other two.

Castres (9 points) might seem out of it, but winnable games against Exeter and Gloucester gives the French Club the best shot at garnering 10 points from the final weeks.