Five Bold Predictions That Could Shape The URC Title Race In 2026

Five bold predictions for the URC second half, from Stormers dominance to Leinster’s surge and a potential breakthrough season for Cardiff.

Jan 2, 2026 by Briar Napier

Five Bold Predictions That Could Shape The URC Title Race In 2026

The new year is upon us, and the 2025-26 United Rugby Championship campaign is in the thick of competition.

The conclusion of the upcoming New Years’ weekend matches will mark the halfway point in the season, with all teams in the league gunning for playoff spots, premier European placements and/or bragging rights in regional shield competitions.

There’s a lot left to be played for, and as we evaluate the year to date ahead of the URC’s halfway point, there are some takeaways that are providing major indications about how the rest of the season will go.

Here’s our list of five bold predictions to monitor during the latter half of the United Rugby Championship season.

Only One South African Team Makes the Playoffs

The Stormers have been the class of the URC to date, leading the competition on New Years’ Eve with the league’s only unbeaten record and a strong all-around setup. The rest of the URC’s South African contingent, however, has largely been underwhelming. The Lions (eighth place, 17 points), Bulls (10th place, 15 points) and Sharks (13th place, 12 points) have not been pulling their weight compared to last season, when three South African sides made the playoff quarterfinals and two currently on the outside looking in, the Bulls and Sharks, faced off against each other in a semifinal. Those two teams, in fact, finished second and third in the URC table a season ago, respectively, and neither have a winning record at the start of the new year this campaign. Form must improve for the three non-Stormers sides in order for South Africa to have its best chance to have at least one finalist for the fifth straight season, though with some high-octane South African derbies on the docket in the second half of the campaign, expect some shakeups throughout the table that could be beneficial (or detrimental) to the Lions, Bulls and Sharks’ playoff hopes.

Leinster Will Claw Back Into Top Four

Sixth place is a rare spot for Leinster, the four-time European Rugby Champions Cup winners and defending URC champions, as one of the world’s most successful rugby clubs had some work to do after the season’s first month. But if you’re a Leinster supporter, don’t worry; all is likely to be just fine. Leinster’s URC campaign got off to a nightmare start, losing three of its first four matches (including its first interpro derby of the season against hated rival Munster in Round 4), and Leo Cullen’s men have been playing catch-up ever since as they enter the new year outside of the home playoff quarterfinal places. As the season has progressed, however, Leinster is starting to warm back up, and enters 2026 having won six matches in a row in all competitions — including getting revenge over Munster in a low-scoring 13-8 thriller at Thomond Park over the weekend. Just seven points separate Leinster from the table-topping Stormers and it plays its next three matches (Connacht twice, Edinburgh) against teams all in the bottom half of the standings, giving Leinster a major opportunity to rise up the rankings and get back up to a familiar place — challenging for the URC title.

Benetton Will Win the Scottish x Italian Shield

Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. And when it comes to the Regional Shield race, Benetton has taken that identity and ran with it. Despite having the worst point differential (minus-35), fewest tries scored (three) and most tries conceded (11) of any team in the Scottish x Italian Shield standings, Benetton currently tops the table on eight points thanks to a pair of narrow victories over both Scottish side Glasgow Warriors and Italian rivals Zebre Parma. It’s made for an unusual shield race, and though Benetton’s lead may only be temporary as it holds a game in-hand over both the Warriors and Zebre, it has gotten some help from the rest of the shield’s contingent as Edinburgh — which smacked Benetton 43-0 in Week 4 — is yet to win another game in shield play, making the race a wide-open one. Since shields began following the URC’s restructure prior to the 2022-23 season, no Italian side has ever captured the Scottish x Italian Shield, but in a URC season full of some hijinks, we’ll go out on a limb and predict that Benetton holds in the season’s latter half to capture just its second-ever trophy outside of Italy, following its shock Pro14 Rainbow Cup win in 2021.

Cardiff Will Make the Final

It’s no secret that it’s been a chaotic year in Welsh rugby. Between the announcement from the Welsh Rugby Union earlier in the year that it will eventually reduce the country’s URC sides from four to three and a dubious 18-match losing streak against Tier 1 teams on the national side, rugby fans in Wales badly need a pick-me-up. Cardiff has felt the sting, too, as the club entered administration in April and had to be bought out by the WRU to avoid ceasing to exist entirely, but the club is leading the charge for Welsh rugby at the moment this URC season in third place on 30 points. So, in a rugby-mad region in dire need for some optimism, we’ll tip Cardiff to finally give Welsh rugby a long-awaited bright spot. Though a derby defeat to the last-place Scarlets just before Christmas stung, Cardiff still has six victories on its resume and is only two points back in the table of the first-place Stormers, putting it in prime position to make a second-half surge. Leinster, Ulster and a final-round clash with the Stormers are still to come, but if a scrappy Cardiff side can perform strongly and earn a high playoff position, watch out come knockout-round time.

Stormers Will Become Invincible

Since the URC reorganized in 2021, no team has finished the season without a loss. It’s still early days, but if there’s going to be a team to make history, it might just be this season’s edition of the Stormers. Even with the three teams behind them in the title race holding a game in-hand, the Stormers are a perfect 7-0-0 with the second-most points scored in the competition (218), the best point differential (plus-131) and currently hold a two-point lead over everyone else in the URC table going into the new year. John Dobson’s men have passed every test to date with flying colors, winning their first South African derby of the season right before Christmas against the Lions while also picking up strong results elsewhere, including a 35-0 drubbing of defending champion Leinster in Round 1 and a crucial 27-21 win at title rivals Munster at Thomond Park in Round 6. Flyhalf and breakout star Jurie Matthee leads the URC in points — and is pushing for what would be a well-deserved first Springboks call-up — to bring the electricity, and the Stormers combine it with superb discipline as the least-penalized team in the competition, plus a league-leading 94% lineout success rate. The Stormers have the entire package, and until proven otherwise, they are the favorites to pick up their second-ever URC title — and accomplish something magical while doing it.

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