Five Bold Predictions That Will Shape The Second Half Of The Top 14 Season

Here are five predictions for the second half of the Top 14 season, from the title race and playoff picture to relegation battles and surprise contenders.

Jan 1, 2026 by Briar Napier

Five Bold Predictions That Will Shape The Second Half Of The Top 14 Season

The end of the calendar year traditionally marks the halfway point in the French rugby season, where all teams have gotten a match against one another, and most are in the thick of the continental slate.

At the 50% mark, there are two far-and-away title favorites, a mid-table battle that’s likely to prove to be tantalizing as the rounds wind down and a two-team relegation battle that, if form holds, very well could stretch into the final day.

It all makes for a recipe of what should be a thrilling second half of the Top 14 campaign — and we have some observations ahead for what’s to come.

Here’s our list of five bold predictions to monitor during the latter half of the Top 14 season:

Perpignan Will Avoid Relegation

Following an atrociously bad start in which it failed to win in any of its first 11 matches (including in a crucial relegation scrap against fellow struggler Montauban in Round 8), Perpignan looked dead in the water and a surefire pick to be the team getting the automatic drop at the conclusion of the regular season.

But all it took was a little bit of respite from domestic competition to get Perpignan on the right foot.

Finally getting off the mark for 2025-2026 after defeating Welsh side Dragons in EPCR Challenge Cup pool play, Perpignan returned to France for Round 12 and stunned Clermont for its first Top 14 win of the season.

It wasn’t able to make it two in a row before the end of the calendar year, but a respectable performance against Toulon, in which it was leading at halftime, showed that Perpignan finally might be turning the corner.

We believe the hype — to a point.

Automatic safety with an 18-point deficit to make up for 12th place probably is out of the question, so Perpignan will need to find a way not just to leapfrog 13th-place Montuaban (currently two points ahead), but also win the relegation playoff against the to-be-determined runner-up in Pro D2.

Clermont Will Make The Playoffs

Hold on, didn’t Clermont just lose the worst team in the Top 14 so far at the halfway point of the season? Indeed it did — and yet, we’re still picking Montferrand to eventually find its way to the top 6 by the end of the regular season.

Why? There are a few reasons.

First, Clermont’s attack is electric; only table-topping Toulouse has more points through 13 rounds than Les Jaunards’ 435, and the team's 55 tries scored to this point additionally ranks third in the Top 14.

A defense that could use some midseason tweaking could help Clermont build some consistency, but its plus-71 point differential still is the best among teams outside of the playoff places and only behind Toulouse and Pau competition-wide.

Second, the mid-table jumble is tight, and Clermont’s current 11th-place standing is not all that it seems on paper.

Just three points separate Clermont from fourth-place Stade Francais, meaning that the standings still can change dramatically over the course of a single weekend, and with an eight-point lead over 12th-place Lyon, Clermont also has some breathing room to work with.

Don’t be surprised if Clermont finds a late run of form and finds itself playing playoff rugby.

Bordeaux Will Miss The Playoffs

The spotlight has been on Bordeaux Begles for most of 2025, and rightfully so.

UBB features some of the best players in the world and stalwarts of the French national team (Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Damian Penaud, Matthieu Jalibert, etc.), is the European Rugby Champions Cup holder and has come the closest in recent years to knocking Toulouse off of its perch as the undisputed king of the Top 14.

However, Les Girondins might be feeling the heat in what no doubt has been the most pressure-filled campaign in the club’s history.

UBB hasn’t been bad domestically by any means; it is currently in fifth place on 34 points, and while the team finds itself 13 points adrift of leader Toulouse, knockout-round rugby can change fortunes in an instant.

However, we’re calling that Bordeaux will miss out on the top 6, as a European title to defend and a suspect forward pack that’s been a counter to its devastating back line may end up being a hindrance to UBB down the stretch, especially if a deep Champions Cup run is on the horizon.

Bayonne Will Finish Unbeaten At Home (Again)

The Stade Jean-Dauger has always been a tough place to play whenever Bayonne finds itself in the top flight, but in recent seasons, the stadium in the heart of French Basque Country has been turned into a fortress.

L’Aviron didn’t lose at home for the entirety of the domestic campaign in 2024-2025, a major reason behind the club’s impressive fourth-place finish last season and ticket to the Champions Cup.

Lo and behold, Bayonne once again is perfect at home at the Top 14’s halfway point this time around, holding a 7-0 record on home ground in the competition as the club currently holds the sixth, and final, playoff spot at the time of writing.

Showing out in front of home support has been a clear part of Bayonne’s identity this season, and we’ll predict that the squad will make the playoffs once more with an unblemished home mark.

To progress any further, however, Bayonne must improve its away form, as it has been abysmal to date on the road, losing five straight matches and being only ahead of the two relegation scrappers, Montauban and Perpignan, when it comes to away points scored.

Toulouse Will Not Complete The Four-Peat

It’s no secret that Toulouse is on the cusp of Top 14 immortality.

If the most successful club in French rugby wins the title for the fourth consecutive season, not only will it be just the second time that it’s ever happened in France’s top flight — Toulouse also accomplished the feat from 1994-1997 — it will also be the first occurrence of a four-peat ever to take place solely in the professional era, a monumental achievement considering how much the standard of rugby union has improved over the past three decades.

We’re making the boldest prediction of all that it’s not going to happen.

Of course, Toulouse is leading the table halfway through the season and probably would take delight in blowing this prediction up in its face, but it does have to ward off a serious challenge from second-place Pau, sitting just a point behind and already holding a win over the French rugby giants this season.

Pau (which hasn’t won a top-flight trophy since 1964) could be the one to shatter the moment with a historical achievement in its own right, but a helter-skelter mid-table fight brewing below them could see another contender to the throne emerge to take charge late in the season. However, this is Toulouse we’re talking about here, and arguably no team on the planet performs better under pressure.

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Investec Champions Cup Round 2

Friday, Dec. 12

3 p.m. ET: Leicester Tigers vs. Leinster Rugby, Mattioli Woods Welford Road

Saturday, Dec. 13

8 a.m. ET: DHL Stormers vs. La Rochelle, Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium
10:15 a.m. ET: Hollywoodbets Sharks vs. Saracens, Hollywoodbets Kings Park
10:15 a.m. ET: Clermont Auvergne vs. Sale Sharks, Stade Marcel-Michelin
12:30 p.m. ET: Bordeaux-Bègles vs. Scarlets, Stade Chaban-Delmas
12:30 p.m. ET: Munster Rugby vs. Gloucester Rugby, SuperValu Páirc Uí Chaoimh
3 p.m. ET: Glasgow Warriors vs. Toulouse, Scotstoun Stadium

Sunday, Dec. 14

8 a.m. ET: Harlequins vs. Bayonne, Twickenham Stoop
8 a.m. ET: Castres Olympique vs. Edinburgh Rugby, Stade Pierre-Fabre
10:15 a.m. ET: Toulon vs. Bath Rugby, Stade Félix Mayol
10:15 a.m. ET: Northampton Saints vs. Vodacom Bulls, cinch Stadium @ Franklin’s Gardens
12:30 p.m. ET: Bristol Bears vs. Pau, Ashton Gate

Investec Champions Cup Round 1 Scores

Friday Scores

DHL Stormers 23, Bayonne 17 | FINAL
Sale Sharks 21, Glasgow Warriors 26 | FINAL

Saturday Scores

Saracens 47, Clermont 10 | FINAL
Bordeaux 46, Vodacom Bulls 33 | FINAL
La Rochelle 39, Leicester Tigers 20 | FINAL
Leinster Rugby 45, Harlequins 28 | FINAL
Bristol Bears 17, Scarlets 16 | FINAL
Bath Rugby 40, Munster Rugby 14 | FINAL

Sunday Scores

Northampton Saints 35, Pau 27 | FINAL
Toulouse 56, Hollywoodbets Sharks 19 | FINAL
Gloucester Rugby 34, Castres 14 | FINAL
Edinburgh Rugby 33, Toulon | Final

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