Opinion: Ireland's Slide Shows A Rebuild Is Unavoidable For Farrell
Opinion: Ireland's Slide Shows A Rebuild Is Unavoidable For Farrell
Ireland’s recent dip is a warning. With aging leaders and an underused U20 pathway, Andy Farrell must reset selection, tactics and depth ahead of 2027.
Talk to an Irish fan of a certain vintage, and the idea of losing sleep over defeats to the All Blacks or Springboks would once have been laughable. Not anymore.
For over a decade, Ireland has lived at a level that previous generations barely glimpsed.
The Schmidt era, from 2013 onward, normalized success, and Andy Farrell then pushed those standards even higher. Ironically, that success is precisely why a 2-2 November block now triggers national panic.
But context matters. Ireland is not collapsing. The team is recalibrating. And doing so at a moment when the sport itself is evolving beneath everyone's feet.
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For a nation that has never broken a Rugby World Cup quarterfinal ceiling, and traditionally peaked early in cycles, a dip two years out from Australia 2027 is not the crisis some claim.
In truth, this is a controlled regression from rarefied heights, rather than a fall from relevance. Ireland still is one of the best teams in the world, but not the force it was between 2022 and 2023. The reasons are structural, cultural and tactical.
Since Ireland went toe to toe with New Zealand in that brutal quarterfinal in Paris, the spine of the team has undergone its most significant generational shift since the end of the golden O’Driscoll, O'Gara and O'Connell era.
Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray, Peter O’Mahony and Cian Healy have retired. That is 494 caps and 15 Lions tests removed in one sweep. More importantly, it is the loss of four standard setters whose presence shaped every training session, every leadership conversation and every inch of expectation within the squad for over a decade. No team sheds that level of knowledge and identity without consequence.
Combine those departures with the advancing age of several remaining leaders, and the idea of maintaining the level reached in 2022 always was unrealistic. Yet Ireland still won the 2024 Six Nations with Jack Crowley at outhalf and only missed back-to-back Grand Slams due to the chaos at Twickenham.
In 2025, Farrell backed Sam Prendergast and still lost only once, to eventual champion France.
November 2024 was painted as a disaster in some quarters. It was not.
Ireland won 3 of 4, with the only defeat coming against the All Blacks. But the deeper concern was exposed last weekend.
Ireland was bullied by the back-to-back world champions in a way not seen since the early 2010s.
The scrum was obliterated. The collisions were lost. The physical contest was one-sided. For a team with an identity that long has been built on efficiency and discipline, it was a jarring reminder that the sport no longer looks like it did even two seasons ago.
And that brings us to a cultural shift that too many are ignoring.
Under Schmidt, Ireland was the most disciplined and analytically precise team on the planet. Everything was measured. Everything was rehearsed. Everything was built on detail.
Under Farrell, Ireland has embraced freedom and expression. This has unlocked levels of attacking rugby Ireland had never before reached. But that looseness has crept too far into the edges. Penalties have increased. Breakdown discipline has slipped. Contact accuracy has dropped. Line speed is inconsistent. And none of this can be separated from selection.
Farrell is loyal. He trusts his players deeply. But that loyalty has, at times, become a safety blanket.
Established players frequently retain their places regardless of form, while newer faces are cycled in and out of squads with minimal jeopardy. This has softened competitive tension and created a system where discipline has gradually eroded. Ireland has not fallen off the cliff, but the squad has slipped several key percentage points at a time when the margins at the top of world rugby have never been smaller.
If Ireland wants to reverse that trajectory, the solution starts not with the current team, but with the future one. And the future lies in the pathway Ireland has underused for half a decade.
Ireland’s U20 program is the most successful in the country’s history.
Between 2019 and 2025, Ireland won 50% of the U20 Championships with Grand Slams in 2019, 2022 and 2023. Ireland reached the World Rugby U20 Championship final in 2023 and the semifinal in 2024. No European nation has matched that sustained level of age-grade success.
And yet, the conversion rate is stark.
Only 10 of 103 players from those Grand Slam squads have become senior internationals, excluding Ben Healy. Across all 236 players capped at U20 since 2019, only 19 have played senior test rugby, which is just over 8%. This is not just underuse; it is structural waste.
It is not a talent problem.
The brief wobble under Neil Doak was driven by coaching instability, not player quality. With Cullie Tucker arriving to lead the pathway, the system should stabilize again.
The problem is that Ireland simply has not trusted the young players at the senior level. Many from these standout U20 vintages now start consistently for their provinces. Some already are leaders within their provincial squads. Yet this has rarely translated into Irish selection. Fringe players are dropped before established ones, and the hierarchy remains anchored to players who peaked between 2018 and 2022.
Ireland now has roughly 30 tests left before the 2027 World Cup. The seeding is secure. There is no reason not to change course. This is the moment to build the Irish team of the next generation.
The forward pack is where the transformation must begin.
No player symbolizes Ireland’s structural issues more than Andrew Porter. Through 79 tests, Porter has started close to 70% of his matches and two of his three Lions tests. No Tier 1 loosehead plays the minutes he does.
Referees continue to penalize his technique, particularly in England, yet Ireland has lacked the depth to rest or rotate him.
Porter now should become the powerful bench weapon every world-class side uses at loosehead. Ireland must instead invest heavily in Paddy McCarthy, Jack Boyle and Michael Milne. These three should start significant volumes of matches in the next 30 tests. Ireland needs four genuine looseheads, not one and a half.
The tighthead position demands similar courage.
Tadhg Furlong remains one of the best props in the world, but he cannot carry the load indefinitely.
Thomas Clarkson must be trusted. Tom O’Toole, Sam Illo and Scott Wilson must be given meaningful exposure. Oli Jager adds further value if his fitness holds.
Ireland must enter the World Cup with depth that rivals South Africa and France, rather than relying on one transcendent tighthead.
In the second row, Joe McCarthy must be the anchor around whom the next pack is built, with his absence being greatly felt this November.
Ireland then needs a power athlete to both compete with and back him up; Munster's Edwin Edogbo is the most obvious option here. His size, acceleration and raw physicality mirror where test rugby is going. This 1-2 punch would go a long way to offsetting the physical packs of South Africa, New Zealand, France and England.
Alongside this pairing, having any of Tadhg Beirne, Tom Ahern or Cormac Izuchukwu as the No. 5 and on the bench would give Ireland athletic balance without dropping the power game. Of course, there also is the veteran presence of James Ryan, who appeared to be getting back to his best before injury struck on the Lions Tour.
In November, he did not hit the heights of his earlier years. While there is no situation where we are writing him off, from the outside, he appears to fall between two stools. He is not quite the power athlete of McCarthy or Edogbo, and he doesn't bring the same dynamism as Beirne, Ahern or Izuchukwu.
The back row also requires reshaping.
Josh van der Flier still is a world-class flanker, but his greatest value to Ireland now lies as the bench operator who covers multiple backrow positions and can even slot into midfield in an emergency under a 6-2 split.
The starting trio that best suits the modern game looks like Ryan Baird at No. 6, Caelan Doris at No. 7 and Brian Gleeson at No. 8. It is the most powerful, dynamic and aerially competent combination available to Ireland.
But personnel changes only matter if they are aligned with the tactical reality of the sport.
The 2024 law changes have ushered rugby into an aerial era. Contestable kicking, vertical dominance, timing collisions, winning the second touch and manipulating the backfield now define elite rugby. Ireland has been too slow to adapt.
Hugo Keenan’s return will instantly stabilize the backfield, but Ireland must reshape its entire backline identity.
A shift to inside center for Jamie Osborne has long been discussed, where his long kicking game, power and defensive solidity transform Ireland’s midfield and give Jack Crowley or Sam Prendergast a second distribution point.
Connacht's Hugh Gavin has the ability and raw talent to be a challenger for Garry Ringrose, given his power and aerial dominance.
On the wings, Farrell faces an interesting period with James Lowe now 33-years-old. While the Kiwi-born finisher still has his power game, his pace and impact on matches have noticeably dipped over the past 12 months. Between now and the Round 1 clash with France at the Stade France, Irish Rugby's burgeoning stable of wingers will be challenged to change Farrell's opinion about who should start in the No. 11 shirt.
At present, the front-runner is Jacob Stockdale, albeit he did not take advantage of his shot this November, while his clubmate Zac Ward, Munster's trio Diarmuid Kilgallen, Andrew Smith and Shane Daly all are playing well for the URC pacesetters. Throw into the mix Connacht's Shayne Bolton, and one gets a full picture of the depth emerging.
On the right wing, Tommy O'Brien has performed relatively well this November, but with Hugo Keenan returning, the likely option of Mack Hansen reverting to the right wing is very real, while Calvin Nash has routinely performed when backed and is a rock-solid aerial option.
There is, of course, a world where Farrell could pick a back three of Keenan, Hansen and O'Brien/Nash, if the left wing options do not take his fancy.
Alternatively, Hansen could remain at fullback given his world-class distribution ability as a pressure-relieving playmaker for Ireland's young outhalves.
Ireland’s attack also needs to evolve.
The Sexton system cannot be replicated without Johnny Sexton. Jack Crowley did enough to come into November as the first choice and fell victim to a lackluster performance by the Irish team against the All Blacks in Chicago. Should he pick up where he left off at Munster, the prospect of molding the Irish game plan around his skill set deserves to be an option.
Crowley is a physical runner, an elite defender and a varied kicker. Ireland needs a system built around its strengths, rather than molding it into a shape designed for someone else.
If Ireland backs Sam Prendergast, the structure must pivot accordingly. That means powerful centers who can absorb defensive traffic, wingers who dominate in the air and a territorial blueprint built around his long kicking. Ireland cannot pick one fly-half and run the other’s playbook.
The bench split also should evolve.
Ireland needs to embrace a 6-2 configuration more consistently. Ciaran Frawley unlocks this with his ability to cover 10, 12 and 15. Jamison Gibson-Park also can play wing, allowing Ireland to load the bench with power athletes.
The coaching setup is another area where Ireland needs fresh voices.
Donnacha Ryan’s work at La Rochelle has been outstanding, and his line-out expertise would address a lingering weakness.
Noel McNamara has built one of Europe’s most fluid attacking systems at Bordeaux and would bring the tactical innovation Ireland desperately needs.
On a more left-field note, Northampton's Sam Vesty has designed and implemented an attacking structure that already has won a Premiership title and taken the Saints to an Investec Champions Cup final.
If Ronan O’Gara were ever to become available, he would transform the environment, though taking him from La Rochelle would be significant.
Ireland also should capitalize on the unique position of having some of the world's best aerial field sports athletes and coaches in its native sporting structures.
Formalizing an agreement with Gaelic Football kicking specialists and aerial coaches, as the sport demands a renewed focus on this area, could give Ireland a unique advantage.
Ireland is not broken. But the team is drifting. And drifting is fatal in elite rugby.
Again, Ireland has roughly 30 tests left before the World Cup. The seeding is secure. There will always be pressure to perform, in particular during the Six Nations, but this cannot stunt development. Only pressure to build.
Farrell must be decisive. He must be bold. He must build the next-generation Irish team, rather than the last iteration of the previous one.
If Ireland is serious about 2027, the time to act is now.
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