Rugby World Cup 2027 Seedings On The Line: FloRugby Ranks Every Contender
Rugby World Cup 2027 Seedings On The Line: FloRugby Ranks Every Contender
South Africa leads the FloRugby Index, but Ireland, New Zealand and England are closing fast as the November tests threaten to rewrite rugby’s global order.
In the cold months of the Northern Hemisphere, the world’s best rugby sides return for what may prove the most consequential November of this Rugby World Cup cycle.
Beyond pride, reputation and northern bragging rights, the coming month will go a long way to determining the final seeding picture for the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
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The results will ripple far beyond scoreboard columns, reshaping the balance of power as the sport enters a new four-year cycle.
Australia Survives Tokyo Scare
The tone was set in Tokyo, where Australia scraped past Japan 19-15 in a match that was meant to be routine, but instead offered a window into a shifting landscape.
The Wallabies, under new leadership and still trying to rediscover their identity, were forced into a street fight.
Stand-in captain Nick Champion de Crespigny crossed early, and Josh Flook and Carlo Tizzano added scores, yet Japan energized under Eddie Jones and refused to fold.
Shuhei Takeuchi and Ben Gunter both scored second-half tries as the Brave Blossoms closed to within four points.
It was a reminder that Japan are no longer a novelty. The squad is organized, technically sharp, and far fitter than the side that collapsed under World Cup pressure two years ago.
Jones, in his second spell as Japan’s head coach, may be building something genuinely sustainable.
For Australia, though, the performance was underwhelming.
A team that sits on 84.0 in the FloRugby November Index, just ahead of Scotland (83.5) and behind Argentina (84.5), will need to rediscover structure fast, before facing a powerful-looking England side at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham this weekend.
Ireland: The Last Dance?
Ireland begins November on 88.0, third in the Index behind South Africa (90.0) and New Zealand (89.0). But the Irish enter with questions that Andy Farrell no longer can ignore about an aging core, an unsettled fly-half picture and the need to inject youth define their challenge.
The hope is that Jack Crowley finally becomes the constant Ireland has lacked at No. 10.
Craig Casey is pushing Jamison Gibson-Park hard at scrumhalf, while the return of Caelan Doris from long-term injury stabilizes the leadership axis.
In the pack, young Paddy McCarthy could follow in his injured brother Joe’s footsteps as Ireland’s next breakout forward.
Perhaps the most fascinating selection debate comes in the back row, where Jack Conan, Cian Prendergast and Ryan Baird each make a case to start.
Thomas Ahern, the 6-foot-9 Munster hybrid with freakish pace, adds a wild-card element. His explosiveness suits a blindside flanker, though with Joe McCarthy out injured, he easily could slot into the second row. The hope among many is simply that he features, as Ireland needs his energy.
Out wide, the injuries to Calvin Nash and Mack Hansen open the door for Tommy O’Brien, a potential revelation at 27-years-old with pedigree but a long injury history.
On the left, Jacob Stockdale must rediscover form to push James Lowe, while fullback remains a three-way fight between Stockdale, Jimmy O’Brien and Jamie Osborne.
Many outside the camp believe Osborne’s long-term future lies at inside center, a shift that could solve Ireland’s midfield depth issues with the key protagonists in that position all quite significantly on the wrong side of 30.
South Africa: Continuity With Edge
If Ireland’s question is about who next, South Africa’s is “who stays?”
Coach Rassie Erasmus again has chosen evolution over revolution, naming a team that blends championship experience with fresh blood for their opener against Japan.
Young prop Zachary Porthen, the former Junior Bok captain, makes his debut at Wembley.
Erasmus’s side includes 16 players from the group that edged Argentina 29-27 to clinch The Rugby Championship, a reflection of his trust in continuity.
“He proved at URC level what he can do,” Erasmus said of Porthen. “At this level, you have to sink or swim.”
With Siya Kolisi leading a pack stacked with Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman and Lood de Jager, the Boks’ power base remains frightening.
Erasmus values this month as much for rhythm as for rankings.
“Very little separates the top teams,” he said this week. “If you are not sharp mentally and physically, anything can happen.”
On 90.0, South Africa leads the Index and, crucially, the psychological race for 2027.
New Zealand: clarity or chaos
Just a fraction behind on 89.0, New Zealand face its own inflexion point.
Head coach Scott Robertson must use this tour to establish a clear spine.
The All Blacks’ backline talent is rich, but the playmaking axis remains a riddle.
Cam Roigard looks ready to become a generational scrumhalf, yet his minutes remain limited.
At fly-half, Beauden Barrett’s twilight years coincide with Damian McKenzie’s inconsistency, leaving Robertson to decide whether to persist or pivot.
Up front, the All Blacks need Wallace Sititi firing again alongside Ardie Savea.
The No. 6 jersey remains contested, with Simon Parker the front-runner, or Sititi shifting there to accommodate Peter Lakai at No. 8.
But the wider concern is structural: two assistant coaches, Leon MacDonald and Jason Holland, have exited in successive seasons, hinting at unrest. The talent is still world-class; the cohesion is not.
Six Nations Power Shift?
The traditional northern heavyweights are trending upward again.
France (87.0) and England (86.0) finished first and second, respectively, in the 2025 Six Nations, edging Ireland on bonus points after identical win-loss records.
It was the clearest sign yet that both sides have the raw material to be contenders in 2027.
France’s depth across the pack and its renewed tempo in attack under Fabien Galthié’s reshaped staff have them looking the most dangerous they’ve been since 2022.
England, meanwhile, is quietly building a ruthless efficiency under Steve Borthwick, less flash, more function and finally a pack that looks capable of matching the southern giants for consistency and physicality.
With home tests against Australia and Argentina to come, both sides can solidify the sense that European rugby’s power axis has shifted east of Dublin once again.
The Emerging Tier
Beneath them, the likes of Fiji (82.0), Georgia (78.5), Japan (79.0), Portugal (77.0) and the USA (76.0) give this window its unpredictability.
Each has the capacity to rattle a heavyweight and redraw the November Index by month’s end.
Fiji’s attack remains the most dangerous outside Tier 1, while Georgia’s physicality and Portugal’s composure continue to bridge the old divide. Japan and the USA, both with fixtures against top-10 opponents, can rewrite the narrative if they punch above their weight.
A Month That Matters
The FloRugby November Index begins with South Africa narrowly ahead of New Zealand and Ireland, but the real story will be the gaps that close.
This is not a tour for experimentation; it is a proving ground that will confirm World Cup seedings.
By the time the final whistle blows in Cardiff on Nov. 29, the landscape for 2027 will look very different, and a few unexpected nations might just be part of that conversation.
Below is our full ranking of the teams we will be watching and tracking in November:
1. South Africa – 90
2. New Zealand – 89
3. Ireland – 88
4. France – 87
5. England – 86
6. Argentina – 84.5
7. Australia – 84
8. Scotland – 83.5
9. Fiji – 82
10. Italy – 81
11. Wales – 80.5
12. Japan – 79
13. Georgia – 78.5
14. Portugal – 77
15. Uruguay – 76.5
16. USA – 76
17. Romania – 75.5
18. Canada – 75
19. Spain – 74.5
20. Tonga – 73
21. Chile – 72.5
22. Hong Kong China – 71
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