South Africa vs. Australia: Three Key Talking Points For TRC Round 2
South Africa vs. Australia: Three Key Talking Points For TRC Round 2
The Wallabies eye an historic sweep, and the Springboks seek Cape Town redemption. Here's three talking points ahead of SA vs. Australia in TRC Round 2.
One week removed from a most impressive of smash-and-grab performances, Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies are bracing for a backlash of gargantuan proportions.
Rebounding from a 22-0 scoreline after 18 minutes at Ellis Park, the Wallabies know exactly what the Springboks can deliver when firing on all cylinders.
While acknowledging the challenge that awaits them at DHL Stadium in Cape Town, the Wallabies are relishing a second crack at history.
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Should Schmidt’s men sweep the Boks, it will be just the second time since The Rugby Championship expanded in 2012 that they have accomplished the feat.
Conversely, Rassie Erasmus’s Springboks are riding a seven-game win streak against the Wallabies in Cape Town and have not lost back-to-back tests since November 2022.
With the curtain call now just over 48 hours away, here are three key talking points heading into the Cape Town showdown:
Worst Fears Confirmed?
The circle of life long has been associated with the 1994 classic ‘The Lion King’.
In sporting terms, team life cycles rarely have extended beyond a Rugby World Cup cycle without significant change.
Standing as clear deviations from the norm are the only two teams to go back-to-back - the All Blacks of 2011 and 2015 and the Springboks of 2019 and 2023. In both cases, the core nucleus of each squad remained intact until the wheels firmly fell off.
In the case of the All Blacks, their humbling defeat at the hands of England in the 2019 Rugby World Cup semifinal brought an end to their reign as the dominant force in the international game.
Subsequent historic home losses to Ireland and Argentina, plus a swept series against the Boks, are among their most chastening of results for a nation accustomed to winning each time they lace up their boots.
Of course, the All Blacks worked their way to the 2023 Rugby World Cup final having navigated a titanic quarterfinal clash with the Irish in Paris, before annihilating Los Pumas a week later.
In the case of this Springboks side, the questions about their slip of form from top dogs of World Rugby to a member of a deep chasing pack, feels closer than ever.
Their loss to Australia in Round 1 should not be viewed in the prism of a one-off loss, but rather a continuation of a theme in which their front-line stars did not perform.
Harkening back to a season ago, the Boks let two other big-time tests slip from a position of power.
In July, the world champions were humbled by a physical Irish onslaught in Durban, a week removed from hanging on against the same opponents at Loftus.
Two months later, Erasmus’s charges fumbled the chance to go undefeated throughout The Rugby Championship with a 29-28 loss to Los Pumas.
In both instances, the Boks should’ve shown the killer instinct that would be fitting of a team of their quality. Instead, cracks appeared that a year prior would’ve been unthinkable.
Fast forward to last weekend, and the loss to the Wallabies was far and away the worst of the Erasmus era and exposed a level of complacency and frailty in their gameplan.
Losing the Championship minutes either side of halftime, the Boks allowed a team that should’ve been dead and buried to have a pulse.
Defensively, the famed blitz defense was unpicked by the Wallabies' willingness to go into the heart of the pressure' and in doing so' saw the Bok defender’s honeypot around the ball. From here, the Wallabies exposed them in the wide channels as the South African defenders slipped tackles.
On the other side of the ball, the Bok attack appeared dumbfounded when the Wallabies fronted up physically.
Instead of adopting a territorial-based gameplan, the Boks looked to attack from deep and were easily picked off. Not only did they lack the pace to compete with their visitors, they were missing the fitness to go through multiple phases without conceding a handling or discipline error.
This brings us to the crux of the discussion: Are the Springboks’ senior players finally showing their age?
Eben Etzebeth aside, none of the team's front-line stars had a sustained effort worthy of winning a test match.
More concerning was the utter lack of impact from the bench, a traditional strength under Erasmus. Instead of blowing open their opponents, the ‘Bomb Squad’ fizzled into nothing more than a dead weight.
Conversely, the Wallabies bench upped the ante even when several players were playing out of position due to mounting injuries.
Reacting in kind, Rassie has rung the changes this week and the Boks no doubt will be better with Handre Pollard marshalling their gameplan instead of the all too loose Manie Libbok.
Yet, even if the Boks do rebound this week, the cracks in the previously impenetrable armor have been laid bare for all to see.
If teams can stay in the fight, the Boks have gone from a team of closers to a side that's vulnerable and could run out of steam. Unlike the 2023 vintage, the reinforcements simply are not as impactful as they once were, leaving Erasmus with a headache he would not have expected midway through a World Cup cycle.
Wallabies Depth To Be Tested
Feeling every bump and bruise from their Ellis Park odyssey, the Wallabies will travel to Cape Town even more injury-depleted than when they arrived in the republic.
Among the wounded, two-try hero and skipper Harry Wilson hobbled off with a nasty knee injury after dotting down for his second score., Winger Dylan Pietsch had surgery for a broken jaw and veteran loosehead James Slipper has returned home having failed the HIA protocol.
In their place, come some impressive operators in the world-class Rob Valetini, experienced, yet third-choice Tom Robertson and the talented, but untested, Cory Toole.
Three changes hardly is earth-shattering news, yet when you scratch beneath the surface of the overall squad complexion, it is clear the Wallabies are getting closer to bare bones.
Already without their presumed first-choice fly-halves in Noah Lolesio, Tom Lynagh and Ben Donaldson, the Wallabies once again have handed the reigns to 35-year-old James O’Connor.
At scrumhalf, Jake Gordon’s injury has seen Nic White delay his retirement, with Tate McDermott firmly locked into the role of utility back off the bench.
Out wide, Harry Potter and Pietsch are unavailable, while Matt Faessler’s absence limits the depth of the front row.
Across the board, Wallabies are down bodies, but unlike previous seasons, there are no panic alarms being sounded.
Key to this has been the Joe Schmidt effect, where players can slot into his system with ease, provided they can absorb the intricate details he puts in place.
This being said, should the Wallabies lose a few more bodies, namely O’Connor, Robertson, Fraser McReight and Will Skelton, staying true to the gameplan could become challenging.
Thus, irrespective of the result, the Wallabies will learn a great deal about several new faces this week ahead of what should be an intriguing, but very winnable, series against Los Pumas in Round 3 and Round 4.
Coaching Chess Match
Outgunned, and dare we say outsmarted, rarely are these two words associated with Rassie Erasmus.
In Round 1, however there is zero doubt that the Boks were outworked and outthought by a team that was armed with everything it needed to be successful.
If there ever was performance to remind the game of Joe Schmidt’s brilliance, it was the Ellis Park comeback.
Clearly reading his team the riot act at halftime to great effect, Schmidt’s charges came out of the tunnel focused, while their hosts reverted to gimmicks, rather than substance.
Hitting them where it hurt, the Wallabies went after the Springboks breakdown with ferocious intent and had great joy with McReight and his teammates killing their attack dead.
In attack, the Wallabies picked apart the gaps in the Boks’ blitz defense with a well-executed short passing and kicking game.
Defensively, Joseph Sua’ali’I and others got into the passing lanes and punished the Boks’ constant attempts to go wide.
Now tasked with backing up this performance with another impressive outing in Cape Town, it will be fascinating to see how both sides adapt.
Starting with Erasmus, who no doubt will have taken note of not only his side’s lethargic effort, but the subsequent public discourse.
In previous circumstances, Erasmus has not been shy to tell his team to revert to type and turn the contest into a bar room brawl.
Whether this message still resonates or, more crucially, still is effective against teams that can move the contact point rapidly, remains to be seen.
On the other side of the ledger, Schmidt will know that a storm is brewing and that falling behind by multiple scores again will not be as easily overturned.
Thus, it will be interesting to see if the Wallabies will be able to retain possession and frustrate the Boks.
Facing a far more accomplished game manager in Handre Pollard, the Wallabies back three can expect to be peppered with high balls from the off.
In Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright, they have two proven operators, with Toole being the wild card. Should he struggle, expect Joseph Sua’ali’I to sit deeper on kick receipt to counter Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie.
In the pack, the Boks will back themselves to milk scrum penalties, but they must rectify their haywire line-out to make this pressure truly count in terms of territory.
Last week’s issues in this department no doubt were key components in the recall of RG Snyman and Ruan Nortje, two of the finest line-out jumpers in test rugby.
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