2024 Dragons vs Montpellier Herault Rugby

EPCR Challenge Cup 2024-2025 Predictions And 5 Things To Watch

EPCR Challenge Cup 2024-2025 Predictions And 5 Things To Watch

The EPCR Challenge Cup 2024-2025 features teams fighting for an automatic spot in the Investec Champions Cup.

Nov 29, 2024 by Joe Harrington
null

Imagine a world where instead of your favorite NFL team’s season ending after not making the playoffs, that there was, in fact, another tournament they could play in that would allow them to win something of value.

What if we told you that when it comes to European Professional Club Rugby, that isn’t just a concept. It’s a reality. 

For the teams from the United Rugby Championship, Top 14 and the Gallagher Premiership that failed to qualify for the Investec Champions Cup this season, a second tournament exists and the winner gets an automatic spot in the 2025-2026 Investec Champions Cup: The EPCR Challenge Cup. 

Last year’s winner, the Hollywoodbets Sharks, became the first South Africa club to win a European tournament. They also qualified for the Champions Cup despite winning just four matches in the URC last season.

And they enter the Champions Cup as one of the darkhorses to win the whole thing despite it all. 

Here are EPCR Challenge Cup predictions and 5 things to watch for in this year’s competition. 

Who Is The Favorite To Win The EPCR Challenge Cup 2024-2025?

Looking at the standings in the Top 14, URC and Premiership as of Nov. 26, Bayonne (6-0-4), Emirates (4-0-1), Connacht (3-0-3), Scarlets (3-1-2) and Cardiff (3-0-3) are all above .500 and having strong seasons. There are only 10 Premiership clubs, and the two teams not in Champions Cup field both have losing records in Gloucester (2-0-4) and Newcastle Falcons (1-0-5). 

Based on current results, the Emirates Lions look as good as any club to win the Challenge Cup. And the record is not all smoke and mirrors, per se. Yes, two of the wins have come in South Africa where SA clubs have dominated European clubs. But the other two were in Wales and Italy. That said, it is tough to tell if the Lions 4-0-1 record is schedule related since they did lose their toughest match (in Dublin against Leinster) 24-6. 

The favorite to win the EPCR based on recent results is probably Aviron Bayonnais, or Bayonne. They have a win against the betting favorite to win the Champions Cup, Toulouse, on Nov. 3 and a 37-7 win over La Rochelle. Those are impressive notches. 

Don’t Sleep On Connacht Rugby

Connacht has been frustratingly inconsistent so far, but they do have the best player in the competition in Bundee Aki and might have the second in Mack Hansen (ask Fiji Rugby about him). Connacht is 5th on the table in the URC and looks as if they have the pieces to beat anyone in the professional world. 

Edinburgh Rugby Is The Team Not To Sleep On

Edinburgh Rugby gave Leinster its toughest match in the URC and two of their losses came in South Africa. They ended the first six weeks with a eye-opening loss to the Ospreys 22-13, but this club also has a 38-7 win over the DHL Stormers. With Duhan van der Merwe still on the team, Edinburgh is as good as any team at home in the URC and in the Challenge Cup. 

The Wildcards Are The Black Lion And The Cheetahs

The EPCR Challenge Cup invited Georgia club the Black Lion and South Africa club the Toyota Cheetahs to play in the Pool stages. The Cheetahs played in the Currie Cup this summer but don’t play in the URC. The Black Lion compete in the Rugby Europe Super Cup. 

The Cheetahs reached the Round of 16 last season while the Black Lion didn’t qualify for the knockout stages.

The Cheetahs lost to Clermont, who is in the Champions Cup this year, 27-22. 

The Winner Of The Challenge Cup Could Come From The Champions Cup Field

There are 18 teams that play in the Challenge Cup. The top four teams from the three pools make the Round of 16. The next four are clubs that finish fifth their Champions Cup Pool. For instance, say the Exeter Chiefs finished fifth in Pool 1 of the Champions Cup, then they would qualify for the Challenge Cup Knockout stage. It’s easy to assume those Champions Cup teams would be favorites, but last year only Connacht and Ulster advanced to the quarterfinals. 

A very good rugby club in Pool 2 and Pool 3 of the Champions Cup will finish fifth of those teams, one could be the favorite to win it all. 

EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions: Here’s Who Will It All

Here’s my prediction: 

  • Pool 1: Connacht Rugby 
  • Pool 2: Emirates Lions
  • Pool 3: Bayonne
  • The Four Champions Cup Teams: Ulster Rugby, Bristol Bears, Northampton Saints and Harlequins. 

Finals matchup: Northampton Saints vs. Bayonne

Finals winner: Northampton Saints

The Saints are 3-0-3 in the premiership after winning the whole thing a year ago and reaching the Champions Cup quarterfinals. They are a top-five team in the latest FloRugby Top 50 clubs ranking. They could certainly win Pool 3 of the Champions Cup that features Munster, Vodacom Bulls, Castres, Stade Francais and Saracens, but it would be terribly difficult the way they have been playing. A trip to South Africa in Round 2 and a trip to Paris in Round 3 are difficult matches and their Champions Cup postseason hopes could come down to a match at home against a Munster team that, while struggling, could be healthy and looking like the dominant team of a year ago. 

It’s a tough pool. If the Saints get in the Challenge Cup, they become the favorites to win it. And that’s what I think happens. 

Where To Watch The EPCR Challenge Cup 2024-2025 Season

The EPCR Challenge Cup is streaming live on FloRugby and the FloSports app. 

EPCR Challenge Cup Format 

Key points for the 2024/25 EPCR Challenge Cup:

  • A multi-pool format, as launched in the 2023/24 season
  • 18 clubs in three pools of six
  • sporting jeopardy with each club playing against four different opponents home or away in the pool stage
  • Four highest-ranked clubs in each pool qualify for the knockout stage
  • Eight weekends with four pool stage rounds and four knockout stage rounds culminating in the 2025 final at Cardiff's Principality Stadium on Friday, 23 May

EPCR Challenge Cup Weekends

  • Round 1 – 6/7/8 December 2024
  • Round 2 – 13/14/15 December 2024
  • Round 3 – 10/11/12 January 2025
  • Round 4 – 17/18/19 January 2025
  • Round of 16 – 4/5/6 April 2025
  • Quarter-finals – 11/12/13 April 2025
  • Semi-finals – 2/3/4 May 2025
  • 2025 EPCR Challenge Cup final – Principality Stadium, Cardiff; Friday May 23

EPCR Challenge Cup Qualifiers 

Clubs from the United Rugby Championship, the TOP 14 and the Gallagher Premiership who have not qualified for the 2024/25 Investec Champions Cup will compete in the 2024/25 EPCR Challenge Cup.

NB If not already qualified, the winner of the 2024 EPCR Challenge Cup will secure a place in the 2024/25 Investec Champions Cup, replacing the eight-ranked club in its league.

EPCR Challenge Cup Qualifiers 

  • UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP   – Ospreys, Emirates Lions, Edinburgh Rugby, Connacht Rugby, Cardiff Rugby, Scarlets, Dragons RFC, Zebre Parma
  • TOP 14   – Section Paloise, USAP, Lyon Olympic University, Aviron Bayonnais, Montpellier Hérault Rugby, RC Vannes
  • GALLAGHER PREMIERSHIP  – Gloucester Rugby, Newcastle Falcons
  • INVITED   – Black Lion, Toyota Cheetahs

When Does The 2024-2025 EPCR Challenge Cup Begin? When Is The Challenge Cup Final?

The Investec Champions Cup and the EPCR Challenge Cup begin on Dec. 6 and the four-round pool play action ends on Jan. 19, 2025. The Round of 16 starts on April 4, while the quarterfinals are April 11-13 and the semifinals are May 2-4. 

The EPCR Championships weekend is in Cardiff, Wales at Principality Stadium. There are championship games on May 23 (EPCR Challenge Cup) and May 24 (Investec Champions Cup). 

What Are The EPCR Challenge Cup Pools?

Here are the pools. 

EPCR Challenge Cup

Pool 1:

  • Cardiff Rugby
  • Connacht Rugby
  • Toyota Cheetahs
  • Perpignan (USAP)
  • Lyon Olympic University (Lyon OU)
  • Zebra Parma

Pool 2:

  • Montpellier Herault Rugby
  • Pau (Pau Section)
  • Newcastle Falcons
  • Dragons RFC
  • Emirates Lions
  • Ospreys

Pool 3:

  • RC Vannes
  • Black Lion
  • Bayonne (Bayonne Rowing)
  • Scarlets
  • Edinburgh Rugby
  • Gloucester Rugby

How To Watch Rugby Matches In the United States On FloRugby

FloRugby and FloSports also are the US home to: 

FloRugby also is home to match archives and match replays. 

Join The Rugby Conversation On FloRugby Social