Almost all of the quarterfinal spots at the 2023 Rugby World Cup still are there for the taking as we enter Round 5 of the competition. 

In Pool A and Pool C, there are two clear front-runners – France and New Zealand in the former and Wales and Fiji in the latter.

Things are less clear in the other pools, where the final outcome will be defined by one single match.

Here is a deep dive into the quarterfinal permutations for those two fixtures.

Ireland Vs. Scotland

The Pool of Death truly has lived up to its billing. 

In the buildup to the World Cup, much of the talk was about how stacked Pool B was. With Ireland, South Africa and Scotland all involved, the group contains the No. 1-ranked side in the world, the reigning champion and one of the best-attacking teams on the planet.

It’s hard for such a high collection of talent to live up to the hype, but as we enter Round 5, all three nations still are in with a fighting chance of qualifying, as Ireland gears up to face Scotland in a must-win game for both.

South Africa already has played all of its matches, and after losing to Ireland and beating Scotland, the Boks’ fate lies in the hands of others.

Ireland has the clearest path. 

If Andy Farrell’s men win or draw, they will qualify at the top of the group alongside South Africa. However, if they lose, things get complicated.

Scotland does have a few routes to the quarters, but they all hinge on limiting Ireland’s points differential. 

If Gregor Townsend’s men win without picking up a try bonus point, they have to limit Ireland to less than four tries and beat them by more than eight points.

In this instance, Scotland and Ireland will finish on the same amount of points, but with Scotland winning the head-to-head, they would be the ones to go through alongside South Africa.

However, if Ireland picks up either one or two losing bonus points, they will qualify, and Scotland will head home.

Prospects for Scotland are a little better if the team can score four tries and win Saturday. Once again, they would qualify and bump Ireland out of the competition by withholding any losing bonus points from their opponents.

However, if Scotland wins and collects five points, and Ireland gets two losing bonus points, Scotland will miss out on qualification. Additionally, If Ireland gets one bonus point, and Scotland wins by a margin of less than 21, then Townsend’s men will miss out.  

Interestingly, there is only one way South Africa can get knocked out. For that to happen, Scotland must score at least four tries, win by a margin of more than 21 points and reduce Ireland to one losing bonus point. Only then, will the Springboks take an early flight home.

Evidently, there’s a lot of pressure hanging on Scotland’s shoulders. They have to win but will be acutely aware of the task ahead, as they’ve beaten Ireland only once in the last 10 years.

Argentina Vs. Japan 

Spend a few minutes thinking about the permutations in Pool B, and you’ll likely get a headache. Fortunately, things are not so complex in Pool D. 

England, having beaten Japan, Argentina and Chile, already has qualified at the top of the group.

Japan and Argentina will lock horns Sunday lunchtime with a quarterfinal spot on the line. 

A win for either team will be enough for them to fill the runner-up spot. However, if it ends in a draw, there's still a chance Samoa could tip them both, provided the Samoans beat England.

If both Argentina and Japan get try bonus points in a draw, then Argentina will take second place on points difference.

For Japan to qualify after a draw, it must be the only team to get a try bonus point. In principle, this means Argentina stands a better chance of joining England in the knockouts, largely because its points difference is better than Japan’s.

However, if neither Argentina nor Japan get a bonus in the draw, the door for Samoa opens. In that eventuality, the Pacific Islanders must beat England by 29 points and get a try bonus point to catapult above their two rivals and finish second in the group.

It all sounds a bit convoluted, but in the end, the message for Japan and Argentina is simple – win, and they’re through.