The United Rugby Championship returns to our screens this weekend, and what a weekend it looks set to be.

With Christmas Day less than 48 hours away, all of the URC’s five competing nations will take part in the first of two back-to-back derby weekends.  

Derby games always carry an extra bite, as teams look to get one over their countrymen and, with it, bragging rights until they next meet.  

Theis season’s Christmas action gets underway in South Africa, with the Cell C Sharks hosting the Emirates Lions in the first of two north vs south battles. 

From there, the action is non-stop, as the best of South Africa, Ireland, Italy, Wales and Scotland jostle for the all-important playoff positions, with the competition going past its midway point.

With the formalities out of the way, we take a look at which teams should be higher up the table than their records would suggest, along with two teams that are perhaps feeling pretty good about where they find themselves.

Two Teams Better Than Their Records Suggest

Munster 

To say that Munster’s season started at a snail’s pace would be an insult to snails the world over.

Graham Rowntree’s side could not have gotten its season off to a worse start, recording just two wins in their first seven fixtures. 

In a true reflection of just how dire it was, Munster's worst performance actually came in its limp victory over an over-manned Zebre side in Cork. 

This clash was a snapshot into all that was wrong with Munster early in the season. Every play was labored and uninspired, with even the most basic of skills presenting a challenge.  

Since then, however, the tide has turned, in no small part thanks to the emergence of a number of highly talented youngsters who have pushed the more seasoned veterans back to the standards expected of Munster players.  

A narrow loss to a powerhouse Toulouse side, followed by a dogged win over Northampton to start the Heineken Champions Cup, came on the heels of back-to-back dominant wins in the URC. 

Three wins from four against quality opposition makes for far better reading, and it is a true reflection of the turnaround in the fortunes for Rowntree’s side.

Looking lethargic in the season’s early days, Munster was lacking the usual grunt that so often has seen the team grind out unlikely victories. 

Appearing to play a wide-wide game, without ever really making any yards, Rowntree’s side, under the guidance of attack coach Mike Prendergast, now seems to be striking the perfect balance between conservative play and attacking ambition.

Here is your Munster team to face Leinster at Thomond Park on St Stephen's Day 🙌

See full team news: https://t.co/1K59hLBHiU#MUNvLEI #SUAF 🔴 pic.twitter.com/LETLmK0hC4

— Munster Rugby (@Munsterrugby) December 23, 2022

Currently sitting in eighth position, with a St. Stephens Day clash at home to Leinster on the cards, Munster looks primed to make a run up the table. 

Of course, its record against Leinster in recent years includes just a singular win in the previous 10 outings and is downright abysmal, so this weekend’s clash carries with it a chance to change the narrative between the two great rivals, while boosting them up the table by as many as five positions. 

Edinburgh

The Scottish capital side has perhaps the most misleading record of any side in the URC this season. Quite frankly, a record of four wins and five losses does the squad's style of play a significant disservice. 

Beginning the season with an almighty thumping of the Dragons set up Mike Blair’s side beautifully ahead of a mini-tour of South Africa. 

A gut-wrenching narrow loss in Pretoria to the Bulls, courtesy of a last-minute Morne Steyn penalty kick, further reinforced the narrative that this Edinburgh side would be a force to be reckoned with.

From here, a rather heavy loss to the Stormers was followed by a narrow loss to the Lions on their homecoming. Then, it was three wins on the bounce, with both Italian sides and Cardiff being put to the sword. 

Just as quickly as the tide appeared to be turning, an anchor was dropped with three losses in quick succession, bringing Blair’s men back to earth.

The positive news, however, is that their latest outing against French Top 14 powerhouse, Castres, was a positive one, ending in a 31-20 victory, to keep their Heineken Champions Cup campaign on track. 

🗣️: “We know what we can do next week with our fans behind us”

Connor Boyle gives his thoughts on tonight’s 1872 Cup first leg. pic.twitter.com/kN9CgBm4Cv

— Edinburgh Rugby (@EdinburghRugby) December 23, 2022

This week’s derby match against Glasgow carries with it an opportunity to not only bury their fierce rivals but also catapult them up the table and position them for a run at the top four as the calendar turns to 2023.

Two Teams Worse Than Their Records Suggest

Ulster 

Ireland’s northern province has played some sublime rugby at times this season and is sitting pretty with just two losses from eight fixtures. Significantly, however, both losses came at the hands of the big bullies of the URC, Leinster, which remains undefeated. 

In both fixtures, Ulster had its chances, but it was the second loss that has left the biggest mark.  

Leading by 17 points, before Ulster capitulated in a fashion unlike anything in recent memory.

This demise was not limited to just one clash, as Ulster was roundly beaten in both of its Heineken Champions Cup fixtures, thus leaving its season in tatters, mere weeks from being hailed as genuine contenders. 

The first Champions Cup loss was hands down the worst Ulster performance in well over a decade, as the team failed to fire a shot in the 39-0 drubbing. 

Ulster's first 40 minutes against La Rochelle in the now farcical clash, which took place in Dublin, rather than Belfast, was as bad as any side has looked all season. 

In the team's defense, the second half against La Rochelle was far better, as Ulster salvaged two losing bonus points to cling onto a faint hope of qualifying for the knockout stages. 

What these clashes appear to have exposed is a soft underbelly, which only shows itself when Ulster truly is under the pump. 

This revelation is both incredibly frustrating and disheartening, as Ulster - its backline in particular - is nigh on unstoppable when presented with go-forward ball.   

While the potential of a turnaround in fortunes is not off the table, the next two weekends equally have the potential to all but end their season.

First up is a locked and loaded Connacht team in desperate need of a run of good results to work its way into playoff contention. 

Connacht's head coach, Andy Friend, has rested his Ireland stars throughout the Challenge Cup in anticipation of their derby fixtures. 

Taking into account that over the past 12 clashes, the two sides each have six wins, including splitting last season’s series, Connacht will be a tough nut to crack in Galway. 

From there, Connacht will welcome an in-form Munster side, which will be smarting from its loss at Thomond Park earlier in the season. This clash is of particular interest, as it could yet prove to be case study in two teams on very different trajectories at a crucial point in the season.

Thus the stage is set for Ulster to stand up and fight, as two losses is unthinkable, given where the team was just four short weeks ago.

Vodacom Bulls

The Bulls are powerfully blunt in both approach to the game and in their ambition to win this tournament. 

The Bulls are on this list by virtue of their stellar record so far this season that sees them sitting second on the table coming into this weekend’s clash with the Stormers.

Vodacom Director of Rugby Jake White is one of the very best in the game, and this Bulls side possesses some incredible talent in both the forward pack and the backline.

White has also made it known that he is prioritizing URC success over any Champions Cup ambitions, as he rested the bulk of his first-string players for their recent trip to Exeter.

While the trip to Exeter ended in an expected heavy defeat, it presented a true microcosm of the issues the Bulls side possesses.  

Key among their issues is an inability to transition away from their “Plan A” of employing blunt-force trauma. 

Despite proving relatively successful so far this season, as the Bulls sit solidly in second position coming into this weekend, a deeper dive into the statistics shows where the plan could prove what lowers this teams ceiling.

Currently, the Bulls possess the No. 1 scoring attack in the competition with 302 points scored through the first nine rounds, to go along with top-3 rankings in tries scored and meters made. 

Morne Steyn threads the needle, Chris Smit with the one handed grab 🤯#TrueToTheBlue pic.twitter.com/l6AhSyGHK1

— Official Blue Bulls (@BlueBullsRugby) December 20, 2022

Yet, despite this, they still fail the eye test, which is backed up by the fact that they rank 11th in defenders beaten, as they prefer the Route 1 approach of running over opponents, rather than around them.

This tactic works against a significant number of teams in this competition, yet combined with their 11th-ranked defense and 13th-ranked tackle success rate, it could prove to be an issue when playing the other top sides. 

A key example of this was Munster’s dominant victory over the Bulls at Thomond Park in Round 4. 

The Irish giants not only matched the Bulls physicality, they had them back pedaling and grasping at straws, as they saw their fabled game plan fail them. 

Make no mistake, that loss, and the one that preceded it in Glasgow, was a worrying insight into where the Bulls could struggle down the line.

Munster, for all it did well in that game, still arguably was a pitch below what the Bulls can expect when facing Leinster, the Stormers and the now Springboks-laden Sharks, all of whom will match them physically.  

Therefore, the conundrum facing White is how to expand his side’s style of play to include his incredible backline talent, which itself is jampacked with Springboks players.  

If White’s track record over the past 20 years of top-level coaching is anything to go by, it is hard to see this conundrum being solved by anything other than doing Plan A better.

Written by Philip Bendon